The Month In Review – January 2018

Tags

, , , , , ,

January 2018, started off slowly and for the first two weeks, I was barely seeing any return for my efforts.  But with the Big Bash League and The Australian Open, the betting action hotted up.  I still have over $500 of Bonus Credit with William Hill, which I have yet to convert to cash. A profit of $2,286 (6.74% POT) was achieved.

01 Jan Results

Sportspunter was the worst performing during January 2018.  I only bet on the NBA totals.  At one stage I was losing $1,000 on those bets.  He recovered to be showing a small profit, but then lost heavily in the last couple of days, to record a loss close to $450.

The other Tipsters are performing well, and the reduced units has certainly removed a lot of the stress and strain, experienced in the last few months of 2017.

01 Jan Tipsters

The goal for 2018 is to increase my savings by another $50,000.  At $2,500 per month, I will achieve an additional $30,000.  I am investigating achieving much higher conversion rates on my Bonus Bets.  If that works out, then that should lift my returns.  To achieve the goal, I will need to continue winning and increasing the stakes, in line with the wins.  Onward and Upward.

01 Jan Chart

 

Advertisements

The Year In Review 2017

Tags

, , , , , , ,

2017 Results ChartThe year ended with my worst month for the year.  This resulted from over commitment on horse racing, and my failure to adhere to my own betting principles.  After the bank had doubled in October, $5,000 was withdrawn and November commenced with the new bank of $15,000, and the corresponding units of $150.  During November larger fluctuations were experienced.  Despite this warning, no adjustments to bet sizes were implemented. After the first two Saturdays, racing bets had lost over $5,000 or a third of the new bank. In what can only be described as a panicky response, additional tipsters were included and the racing bets increased. This resulted in a further loss of $2,000. For the remainder of the month, Racing Bets were reduced to half units, in an effort to preserve the bank. A loss of $4,855.53 (14%) was recorded for December.

Full year profit was $18,521.46 (3.77% POT), lower than the 5% return sought.  The reduced return can be attributed to a lack of solid staking strategies on horse racing bets.

2017 Results

2017 Results by Tipster

Value Bets & SportsPunter (from Daily Profit.com.au) continued to provide the bulk of the funds in 2017.  The performances of the horse racing services, were affected by my staking and betting inconsistencies.  These inconsistencies resulted from “score board” pressure.

Moving forward to 2018, we are pretty much where we started 2017. However, Sportspunter Units have increased in value, and Racing bet units will be set at 1/4 of the SportsPunter Unit.  This should reduce the score board pressure and allow for a more accurate assessment of their potential.

The Month In Review – September 2017

Tags

, , , , ,

upward-graphWinter is over, and I was hoping that Spring would improve my results.  Profit for the month was $2,967.  After a bleak winter of treading water, this was like a ray of sunshine in my life.

P&L

There was a post in Daily Profit, regarding TradeMate, and as I had renewed for a year I was offered TradeMate free, for 1 month.  I reset my setting in TradeMate, to those recommended in the Daily Profit Post.  The results were immediate. Note EV stands for Expected Variance.  The Green Line represents where my profit should be on closing variances, and the black line is where I should be, on the edge available at the time of placing the bet.  Eventually you would expect to come back to the green line.

Sep 2017 Trademate

I think (?) that I am finally becoming comfortable with my betting portfolio, and although I have continued to trial many new and wondrous things throughout the year, I am finally narrowing my selections to a narrow range of selectors:

  • Red Belly – Ed Kennett.  The Red Belly Live page is fantastic, but it restricts you to basically spending Saturday and Wednesday and major public holidays chained to the computer.  I know that my profits will take a slight dip, but I will be only using the Ratings Files, on Race Days. I will not be using the Perth Ratings, for the moment.
  • Daily Profit – Value Bets.  I am slowly getting bonus banned from more Bookmakers, but there is still enough value in the service, to continue using it.
  • Daily Profit – Sports Punter. This is the pure gambling side of Daily Profit, but models in most major sports are holding up well.
  • TradeMate – reintroduced to it this month with new settings (see above).

That will be my strategy between now and the end of the year. Bets are at 1% of the total bank, rather than having a bank for each selector, this should dramatically increase turnover.  The graph below shows the Betting Performance from 1 January 2017 to 30 September 2017.

 

Sep 2017

The Month In Review – August 2017

Tags

, , , , , , , ,

budget_-_iStock_000041295790_LargeDuring August 2017 an amount of $29,505 was invested, for a net profit of $696 (2.36% POT). A close examination of my spending has shown that I am living beyond my means, and have probably been doing the same for years.  Although I understand the principles of punting and constantly espouse them, perhaps I have not always lived what I have taught.  Perhaps I am a better teacher than student. In 2015 I made over $10,000 profit. In 2016 I made just under $10,000 profit.  Yet that money was not in my punting accounts. I had drawn it down to facilitate my lifestyle.

I am now reviewing my expenditure daily, to ensure that I know where every dollar goes, and to ensure that I reduce expenditure to live within my means.

I have been reading more about betting psychology,  and there are two traits that I exhibit, that are consistent with problem gamblers:

  1. Overconfidence – the belief that I know more than the average gambler, and will therefore win because of my superior knowledge;
  2. The search for the silver bullet – the quick fix to any problem.  This is the reason for so many random bets.  It displays a lack of the patience and discipline needed for gambling.

These characteristics may have served me well in many other areas of my business life, but they inhibit my performance as a punter.

Racing Portfolio

The racing portfolio unfortunately highlighted these two traits during August and incurred a loss of $652.

Tipster / Capper  

Wagers

Net Profit Return Wins Bets* Win %*
David Evans  $       776.63  $    111.12 14.3%     16      31 51.6%
Red Belly  $   1,819.80  $   (287.80) -15.8%     12      61 19.7%
Maiden Mail  $       862.00  $    198.97 23.1%     16      35 45.7%
Perth Ratings  $       450.00  $   (450.00) -100.0%       –        9 0.0%
Whispering Winners  $       764.90  $     (41.06) -5.4%     11      29 37.9%
Guru  $         85.00  $     (51.00) -60.0%        1        8 12.5%
Reward Bet  $       513.09  $   (118.73) -23.1%     21      51 41.2%
5 Point Specials  $       123.50  $     (13.06) -10.6%        7      16 43.8%
Totals  $   5,394.92  $   (651.56) -12.1%     84    240 35.0%

I over-committed on the Perth ratings as they had been performing so brilliantly.  Of course, as always happens, the performance came back to a more sustainable strike rate.  This overconfidence and searching for a quick fix cost me $450 in August.

Whispering Winners is (apparently) a web site by the same Professional Punter that runs Maiden Mail.  On the surface this free service, along with the free services of Guru, Reward Bet, and 5 Point Specials seemed to be scoring high strike rates. Overconfidence and seeking the quick fix cost me and additional $186.85.

Spring will see the return of quality horses and hopefully, some more predictable results.

Sports Betting Portfolio

A profit of $1,294 was achieved in this portfolio during August, almost entirely from the Value Bets service.  TabTouch warned me in August that I was in danger of losing my Bonus Bets, unless I had a more balanced betting account.  A lot of the horse racing bets, go to these accounts in an attempt to prevent being bonus banned.  This leads to marginally lower prices and hence a reduced profit (or increased loss).  I am prepared to suffer that in order to preserve the Bonus Bets.

Tipster / Capper Wagers Net Profit Return Wins Bets* Win %*
My Bets  $ 11,380.90  $    187.24 1.6%     75    151 49.7%
Sportspunter  $   2,047.50  $     (13.15) -0.6%     42      73 57.5%
Value Bets  $ 10,698.17  $ 1,119.84 10.5%   116    195 59.5%
Totals  $ 24,126.57  $ 1,293.93 5.4%   233    419 55.6%

Year To Date Performances

Racing Portfolio

A poor performance, so far. David Evans records show that he is in profit YTD.  The loss shown on my records reflects my changing units, where I bet higher amounts at the start of the year and lower amounts recently.  Of course, the winners have been coming recently.  Red Belly has struggled over winter, however, my losses will be larger, because of my failure to seek the best prices, in order to preserve my Bonus Bets. It is hoped that Spring will show a positive change in these performances.

Tipster / Capper Wagers Net Profit Return Wins Bets* Win %*
Champion Bets  $ 2,200.00  $  (15.97) -0.7%            20             37 54.1%
David Evans  $   8,382.35  $ (234.73) -2.8%           108           277 39.0%
Red Belly  $ 20,519.54 $(1,258.9) -6.1%           147           859 17.1%
Maiden Mail  $5,736.91  $     92.50 1.6%             75           179 41.9%
Perth Ratings  $   3,135.00  $ 1,132.58 36.1%             23             88 26.1%
Plunge  $       165.18  $      22.42 13.6%               5               8 62.5%
Whispering Winners  $   1,656.10  $    (20.20) -1.2%   15  38 39.5%
Guru  $85.00  $(51.00) -60.0%      1  8 12.5%
Reward Bet  $ 513.09  $(118.73) -23.1% 21        51 41.2%
5 Point Specials  $ 123.50  $    (13.06) -10.6%      7   16 43.8%
Totals  $ 42,516.67  $ (465.18) -1.1%         422        1,561 27.0%

Sports Betting Portfolio

In addition to the amounts below, there has been bonus cash credits of $1,200, generally in the way of Loyalty or Deposit Bonuses. The highest performing item is the Value Bets, which is dependent on Bonus Bets, hence the urgency in protecting those.

Tipster / Capper Wagers Net Profit Return Wins Bets* Win %*
My Bets  $   97,408.86  $   3,117.60 3.2%      580   1,246 46.5%
Sportspunter  $   28,040.50  $   1,511.65 5.4%      257      509 50.5%
Value Bets  $ 116,186.99  $   7,235.55 6.2%      970   1,843 52.6%
Totals  $ 241,636.35  $ 11,864.80 4.9%   1,807   3,598 50.2%

Winter 2017 continues to flat line and continues to make my mood as grey as the skies during winter.  Am really looking forward to Spring and hoping for some better performance from the Horse Racing portfolio.  Oh well, onward and upward.

Winter 2017

 

The Month In Review – July 2017

Tags

, , , , , , , ,

simpson-dohWell it had to happen! I had a bad month. Not only was it a bad month, but I made it worse by breaking just about all of my rules.  I chased losses and I bet without an edge at times.  The loss for the month was $110, and I can easily find more than that amount in bad bets that I made.  So the month should have been at least break even or marginally profitable.  YTD I have invested $266,790 for a profit of $12,654 (4.74% POT).  I also realised this month, that all original capital has been withdrawn from my accounts, leaving only the $12,654 winnings in the accounts.  Bet units have been recalculated on this lower bank.  This also means that I need to work harder on my budget, to avoid future draw-downs from the betting banks.

Racing Portfolio

$6,600 was invested for a loss of $167 (-2.50%). YTD $34,757 has been invested for a profit of $180 (+0.50% POT).  Subscription costs are around $300 per month, for these services, which would mean that financially I would be losing about $2,000 YTD.

The first service in the Racing Portfolio is David Evans Pro Punt.  This was the service that I dropped last year, but it had a late surge to end up in profit, and I subscribed to the service for 2017. In July I invested $1,377 for a loss of $156 (-11.33% POT).  YTD David’s selections have lost $346 (-4.55% POT), plus $700 in subscriptions, would result in a cost to the bank of –$1,046.

Ed Kennett of Red Belly Sports was to be my main provider for horse racing tips.  Unfortunately Ed suffered some health issues in July, and we lost a few weeks of the month for this service.  In July there was $1,521 invested for a loss of -$893 (-58.7% POT).  YTD there has been $18,700 invested in Ed’s service for a loss of $971 (-5% POT), and after including around $700 in subscription fees, this would represent a loss to the bank of $1,671.

An Offshoot of Red Belly has been the Perth Ratings. In July $630 was invested for a profit of $955 (151.6% POT). YTD these ratings have produced a profit of $1,583 (6% POT). This has obviously been an outstanding investment, probably due to the isolation of the West, with a limited number of horses, trainers and jockeys.  I have heard other professional punters describe Perth racing as their personal ATM.  If these sort of results continue, it is envisaged that this will become my main service.  Substantially less work and time involved in the Perth Ratings as opposed to the Red Belly Service.

Maiden Mail and now Stable Mail, from Cameron Walsh were included into the racing portfolio, without previous results available to evaluate the service. In July the service lost $94 (-4.3% POT) and YTD the service is showing $106 (-2.17 %), plus subscription fees of $700, results in a cost to the bank of $806.  Cameron also runs a free FaceBook page, Whispering Winners, which includes Tips from Wally in the West.  These tips are ad hoc, and I find it difficult to get alerts when they are posted.  I have noticed that the Best Bets seem to have some good performances. During July I invested $891 on some of their tips and showed a profit of $20 (+2.25% POT).  I think that I will keep Whispering Winners in mind for future investigation.  I remain undecided on whether to pay the August Invoice and renew my subscription to the Mail services. A lot of the Stable Mail selections mirror David Evan’s selections.

Sports Betting Portfolio

Value Bets from Daily Profit returned a profit of $583 (+5.6% POT) for July.  YTD the Value Bets are in profit by $6,116 (+5.8% POT). This component continues to return a steady and consistent profit each month, and is ideal for establishing a $10K bank and if you can manage to not get Promo Banned, can add that amount to your betting bank each year.   I will write a separate paper on betting strategies, and keeping your promotions.

SportsPunter, which is the gambling arm of Daily Profit, returned a loss of $1,227 (-20.23% POT).   The SportsPunter service is in profit by $1,525 for the year (+5.8% POT).\, which is encouraging, however the magnitude of the July loss, provides a worrying scenario for future losses.  An analysis of the bets show that there is little difference in performance between AFL and NRL.  However, the line bets in the AFL are performing poorly.  The line bets were dropped from NRL as they were unprofitable. I will now drop the line bets for the remainder of the AFL season, as they appear to have the most volatility.

My Bets returned a profit of $606 (+3.8% POT) during July and are showing a profit of $2,930 (+3.37% POT) for the year. My bets are generally using the value tactics learned from the Daily Profit Value Bets.

The graph shows a steady line for June and July, which is disappointing.  But it is the ability to stick to your plan during the hard times, that will determine whether you finish as a winner or a loser.  I look forward to a disciplined August.

July 2017

 

The Month In Review – June 2017

Tags

, , , , , , , ,

onward_upwardThe months are starting to race by now.  For most of June, I was sitting on an $1,800 – $1,900 profit, but ended up finishing up with a profit of $1,558, which is a 4.53% Profit on Turnover. There were 563 bets during the month, with 243 wins (43%), 310 losses (55%) and 10 Refunds (2%).  Progress continues to be slower than I would like, but I am achieving the targeted Profit On Turnover, so I either need to be patient and let the bank slowly build, or inject more capital.  With the property settlement still in limbo, I am unable to inject additional capital, plus I think that I would feel uncomfortable with that level of betting, at the moment. YTD I am achieving a 5.15% Profit On Turnover, which remains on target.

Racing Portfolio

$5,290 was invested for a loss of $5 (0%).

  • There was $737 invested on Pro Punt’s selections for a loss of $8 (1.1%).
  • Red Belly made a profit of $19 (0.8%) from $2,267 invested.
  • Maiden Mail lost $174 from an investment of $1,095 (16%).
  • Perth Ratings continued their strong performance with  a profit of $158 (13%) from an investment of $1,190.

Maiden Mail, and now The Mail’s, selections come from Cameron Walsh.  Cameron gives out free Hong Kong Tips, plus some West Australian tips, on his Facebook Page Whispering Winners.  Cameron also has a Twitter account called Speedform, which also has links to a Facebook page of the same name.  SpeedForm appears to give out some FREE value bets , plus reports on winners achieved through the Maiden Mail service. His LinkedIn profile, shows that he is from Brisbane and owns a business Runbox.com.  There is little other information on Cameron.  The service started brilliantly with 6 winners from 7 selections, but I continue to find myself querying the value of the service.  The selections come from someone, that I don’t know. The introduction came from Mat Hutchison, who I barely know.  I have paid for the July subscription, but will closely monitor results during July.

Year To Date there has been $28,156 invested in the racing portfolio, for a profit of $347 (1%).

  • Pro Punt has lost $190 (3%) from an investment of $6,229.
  • Red Belly Sports has lost $78 (0.5%)from an investment of $17,178.
  • Maiden Mail has lost $13 (0.5%) from an investment of $2,694.
  • Perth Ratings has profited $628 (30%) from an investment of $2,055.

To be fair to Red Belly I keep changing the bank and have not been investing on the same ratios each month. Red Belly bet for value, often 3 horses per race. Strike Rate per bet is irrelevant for this service.  The other two services provide bet selections. Pro Punt’s Strike rate for the 6 months YTD is 38%. Maiden Mail, who claimed a 60% strike rate, is achieving a 40%  Strike Rate.  The low percentages of both Strike Rates continues to be a concern. Perth Ratings often have 2 horses per betting race, and as such the Strike Rate is not a relevant comparison.

This portfolio had been identified as potentially my major investment portfolio, and it’s performance YTD , apart from Perth Ratings, is extremely disappointing, especially considering the outlay involved.

Sports Betting Portfolio

This portfolio made a profit of $870 (7%) for the month, from $13,273 invested. YTD profits in this portfolio are $8,284 (7%) from an investment of $115,012.

  • Sports Punter, is in Profit YTD by $2,752 (14%) from an investment of $19,928.
  • Value Bets has profited $5,532 (6%) from a $95,084 investment.

Again this portfolio continues to provide the bulk of the profits.

My Bets Portfolio

I continue to seek value, as taught by Daily Profit from the various promotions and offers available. In June I invested $14,971 for a profit of $653 (4.5%). YTD these bets have profited the bank by $2,324 (3.25%) from an investment of $70,167.

I continue to read and learn. As long as I am investing correctly, then I am happy.  I get angry and frustrated at myself, when I make poor decisions, or do not perform at my best. Onward and Upward.

The Month In Review – May 2017

bigstock-Hand-Drawing-Roi-return-On-In-57443648-1000x553Headline result is $774 profit.  It was a real roller coaster month. I was in profit over $1,000 after the first week. By the end of the second week I was losing $10 for the month. I didn’t hit my target of $500 per week, but I realised that, this is probably an arbitrary target and that profits are related to the amount invested.

So if the empirical measure of $500 per week is the wrong target, what is the correct target? It should be Return On Investment (ROI) (or Profit On Turnover).  I looked for a 10-12% ROI  from Real Estate, when I was in Defence Housing, but that was over the long term, and basically arose from the appreciation in value of the property.

Small businesses normally return a 3-5% ROI. A High End retail business may make a 10% ROI, but that is generally very rare.  So, as a small business, I should be looking at a couple of things:

  1. Most small businesses fail within the first 5 years. My first target is to be still in business and profitable by the end of 2022.
  2. My target should be a ROI of 103-105% ROI, or a 3-5% POT.
  3. My Units will remain at 1% of my bank for that particular tipster, and will be reviewed at the end of each month.  The unit will not decrease, but it will increase if that tipsters bank increases.  If that tipster’s bank is lost, then a decision will be made whether to continue with that tipster, with a new bank, or discard them.

I invested $25,754 in May 2017 and returned 2.87% Profit on Turnover.  Around the 3% minimum figure that I am targeting. For the Year To Date I have invested $193,447 and returned a POT of 5.25%, which is around the benchmark that I am targeting. One of the questions often raised, is if the ROI is so low, why not simply invest in other markets, other than gambling.  The advantage in gambling is on the amount turned over.  If I had a bank of $5,000 then my ROI would be calculated annually on that amount.  In gambling that $5,000 is being continually turned over (bet) and hence I am achieving a 5% ROI on $193,447, rather than the static $5,000 bank.


Individual Investment Portfolio’s Performances

Pro Punt – David Evans

  • Invests in racing. For May 2017 had 29 Bets for 15 wins (51.7% S/R).  POT was 36% on $502 invested. YTD is returning a negative 3% on $5,516 invested.
  • Starting Bank of $1,000. Lost $167 YTD. Units are $10 (1% of starting bank)

Red Belly Sports – Ed Kennett

  • Invests in racing. Currently has two forms of Investment, East Coast Racing and Perth Racing.  Each have their own bank and are measured independently.
    • East Coast Meets returned 9.4% on $2,318 Invested during the month. While YTD the East Coast Meetings have returned a negative 0.7% on investments totaling $14,911.
    • Starting Bank of $2500. Lost $379 YTD. Units are $25 (1% of starting bank)
    • Perth Races returned 113% on $445 invested. YTD the return is 54% on an investment of $865.
    • Starting Bank of $5,000. Won $426 YTD. Units are $55 (1% of highest point of bank)

Maiden Mail – Matt Hutchinson

  • Invests in racing. In May 2017 had 30 bets for 12 winners (40% S/R). Returned negative 2.6% on a $630 investment. YTD 13.6% Return on an investment of $1,629.
  • Starting Bank of $1,000. Won $221 YTD. Units are $12 (1% of highest point of bank)

My Bets 

  • Invests in propositions where I feel that I have an edge.  Mistakes also get categorised under this heading.  In May 2017 had 50 bets for 15 winners (30% S/R). Returned negative 2.8% on a $2,186 investment. YTD 3.3% Return on an investment of $56,645.
  • Investment amounts limited by Bookmakers.

Sports Punter – part of Daily Profit.

  • Invests in sports betting, this is the straight out gambling arm of Daily Profit. In May 2017 had 61 bets for 22 winners (36% S/R). Returned negative 13.6% on a $4,667 investment. YTD 15% Return on an investment of $15,063. Units are $50 (1% of highest point of bank)
  • Units to be bet are advised by Sports Punter, based on the probability of the event.

Value Bets – part of Daily Profit.

  • Invests in anything where they can gain an edge. Generally will bet each side of any event. In May 2017 had 244 bets for 133 winners (50.4% S/R). Returned 3.6% on a $15.006 investment. YTD 5.5% Return on an investment of $88,470.
  • Investment amounts limited by Bookmakers.

Graphs below show the Roller Coaster ride for May 2017 and the YTD performance of all the portfolios.

May 2017 YTD - May 2017

The Month In Review – April 2017

Tags

, , , , ,

In April 2017, there were 812 bets, of which 327 bets won (40%) and 19 were refunded (2.3%), with 468 losing bets (57.6%). The headline result was $2,314 profit.

Thoroughbred racing bets were again disappointing.  Pro Bet won 8 of 26 bets (30.8%) for a loss of -$61.50 (POT -10%).  Red Belly, on my bets, won 16 of 121 bets (13%) for a loss of -$296 (POT -12%). Maiden Mail (the new system started at the end of March) won 13 of 33 bets (39%) for a loss of -$22 (POT -2.6%). Perth Ratings (part of Red Belly) won 4 of 18 bets (22%) for a loss of -$34 (POT -8%). In total, thoroughbred bets lost a total of -$414 during April 2017.

As usual the Daily Profit suite of products again provided the profit.  SportPunter won 59 of 107 bets (55%) for a Profit of $985 (POT 20%). Value Bets won 148 of 223 bets (52%) for a Profit of $1,520 (POT 8%).

My Bets, based on Value Bets philosophy, won 44 of 121 bets (36%) for a Profit of $86 (POT 1%).

I have ended the TradeMate experiment.  Once the NBA & NFL seasons ended, I was struggling to find winning propositions.  The program was only picking up the -1.5 line on MLB at Bet 365.  These trades were not successful for the time that I used them.  I found that the Rugby League Trades were profitable, but with Sportspunter, I was basically just doubling up on the same bets. Over April TradeMate won 30 of 78 bets (39%), resulting in a loss of -$75 (-5% POT).

I have reviewed the Investment Portfolios and made the following decisions, based on performance YTD.

  • ProBet has lost $365 of their initial $1,000 bank.  ProBet units for May 2017 will be $5;
  • Red Belly has lost $316 of their initial $2,500 bank. Their units will remain at $25.
  • Maiden Mail has won $178 and their units will remain at $10.
  • Perth Ratings has lost $34 of their $1,000 bank and their units will remain at $10.
  • Sports Punter has won $3,177 and their units will increase to $50.
  • Both my Bets and Value Bets are not based on Units, but rather bonus values. My Bets have won $1,732 and Value Bets have won $4,327.  There is concern for the future of these bets as the Government is considering banning bonuses being offered by Bookmakers.

There have been 3,160 bets for year to date, totaling $168,547 for a profit of $10,432 (including Cash Bonuses) for a 6% Profit On Turnover.  Without contributions from the Thoroughbred bets, the targets for May 2017 will remain at $500 per week.

From the graph below, you will see that there have been many low points during the year, however, by working through those, the profitability of the models are eventually re-established.  It is important to remove the emotion from the betting and to continue to believe into the model and invest in a calm and rationale manner.

April 2017