In July 2015 there were 52.75 Units invested, with 41.76 Units returned for a loss of 10.99 Units.
A total of 37 races were contested in July for 7 Winners (19% S/R) and 16 Placegetters (43% S/R), with an Average price of $3.49 achieved per winner and $1.80 per placing. It is obvious that the low Winning Strike Rate for the month resulted in the loss. And this will happen from time to time, we will simply be unlucky. The most important thing about July 2015, is how you, personally, dealt with this misfortune. I hate losing as much as you do. I heard a University Professor talking the other day about Housing Markets and Share Markets. One thing he said was “that you have to expect losses as well as wins, if you are going to invest in a Capital economy”. How true that is, of any investment strategy.
If the losses of July 2015 caused you distress, sleepless nights or anxiousness, then you need to evaluate your strategy. We begin with a 100 point bank, and invest in units that represent 1% of this bank (2% for the adventurous). If the bank was $1,000, then $10 is a unit. Even losing 11 Units in July 2015, the bank still should contain $890. This should not be seen as a major calamity, but rather as a occasional downturn, that will be corrected as more selections are advised.
This is a game of percentages. Each horse is rated regarding it’s percentage chance of winning a race. The ratings are turned into odds and then compared to prices on offer. When the price offered is greater than the rated chance, it qualifies as a bet.
The easiest way to explain this is by a single coin toss. There is a head and a tail. Each has a 50% chance of winning. Turn 50% into odds, makes each of them a 2/1 bet. Then we look around for someone who is offering one of them at 5/2. If we find Heads offered at 5/2, then we bet Heads. There may be a rash of tails thrown and we will lose for awhile. But the percentages say that over time Heads will be thrown 50% of the time and the extra half a point we took will make us the profit. This is exactly how Bookies and Casinos work. They have a small percentage on their side, and they know that over time, those percentage margins will turn a profit.
If losing 11 Units in July 2015, can not be seen in that light, then you need to seriously review your strategies. I am always available to have a chat, just message me through FaceBook if you need to chat.
The Punters Club, although they occasionally produce flashes of brilliance and huge returns, are not as successful as I would like. I have my money in these things too LOL! Part of the reason is that the entire bank is bet on any one day’s selections, even if there is only 1 selection suggested for 1 Unit. This was my understanding of how GTO required their Punters Clubs to operate, i.e. that the entire Daily Bank was invested. From now on the Punters Club money will be invested in a similar manner to our suggested staking. That is the bet will be in Units. Some days only part of the days bank will be bet.
I have occasionally advised of Risk Free or Arbitrage bets through the FB pages. From now on, I will advise them by email only. Arb’ers are banned by Bookies if they are seen as Traders only. Bookies don’t mind you making bets. If you are going to bet on a sports event, bet in even amounts. If you bet $26.14, it is obvious that you are trading. A bet of $25 is simply a bet. Do not only bet on the specials with any one bookie. Put some of your racing bets there as well. Do not keep going back to the well. Do not make multiple bets on a special (most of them are limited anyway), but continually adjusting your exposure with small adjustments, make it obvious that you are a trader.
Betfair on the other hand is set up for Traders and they love them, they just take 8% of any winnings that you make (depending on your State or country). Risk free bets are “free” money, and as investors we should take whatever is on offer.