Bloody awful! The Main set of ratings that I have been using for years have had their bad periods, but over a full year have always delivered a profit. I know that the company had a reorganization in July, shedding several of their sideline businesses and possibly adjusting staff, and definitely hiring new staff. Ratings are done by using KPI’s (Key Performance Indicators) on horses. Different companies can use slightly different KPI’s, but there is so much data available now, that there will be very little difference in the initial ratings. The skill comes in adjusting those initial ratings by reviewing the benchmark performance. Was the horse held up, did it get a clean start, what was reported in the Stewards/Vets reports etc etc etc. That is where the human intervention comes in, and they adjust the initial computer ratings up or down, depending on what they have observed or discovered. It may be that different human eyes are now adjusting the initial ratings in a slightly different manner. I will continue to monitor their performance, for awhile at least, as they don’t miss you when it comes to charging for their services 🙂
Anyway how did we go this week and in August generally. Discounting today (30 August, which used a different set of ratings) we had 14 bets this week, for 3 short priced winners and a refund for running 2nd at Caulfield on Saturday. We invested 19 Units, for a return of 9.75 Units. Recording a loss of 9.25 Units for the week. For the month of August we had 54 bets, for 9 winners (and a refund). There were 80.50 Units invested, with 52.85 units returned for a loss of 27.65 Units.
The ratings provided a selection in Pakenham today, which ran 3rd.
About mid way through August I started investigating alternate sources of ratings, as I was starting to lose confidence in my selections. I found a set of rating that had made a profit in August, but they cost $100 per day for the bare minimum and had lost money in our profitable months. I kept searching through a lot of ratings services. You can do the ratings yourself, but it requires very expensive software, regular updates to the database (about $1,000 a month a lot of years ago), and hours and hours of watching racing videos and taking notes. I no longer have that software, and have no desire to sit in front of a monitor for hours and hours, so now I use ratings services. I then apply my own filters to what the Ratings Services provide and come up with the selections that I intend to back.
Today (30 August 2015), using the new ratings service, there were 5 selections given out, for 4 winners and a 3rd. I know a few people made some very good money today, some backing multis with the selections. I will give the results of the selections that I have made from testing this new service, down below. There will be a number of short priced selections provided. I have found that TT+ is currently providing the best return. The bookies use ratings services, and they subscribe to every large tipping service. The prices the Bookies set are not based on the horses chances of winning, but rather how many tipping services have tipped (and they know how many members are in each service and what their average Unit Bet is) and how the horses are rated to attract the attention of punters. The prices are then set on what they believe the Punters will accept, and how much money is likely to be placed on these selections by the followers of tipping services. So they will not do you any favours in Top Fluc or SP.
You will have seen a confidence percentage applied to today’s selections. In case you are ever wondering how the confidence percentage and betting units are achieved, once a race has been rated, those ratings are adjusted to prices to a 100% market (Bookies use 105%-132% Markets).
Odds of 2 to 1 are obviously a 50% chance of winning. You divide the odds (2) into 100 and that is the perceived percentage chance of winning. The difference between that figure and 100 is the perceived chance of losing. So a 2/1 horse also has a 50% chance of losing :-). Betting units are simply a reflection of the confidence level. There more confident you are of winning, the more you bet and vice versa.
For the moment I suggest that a Unit should be 2% of your bank, and that bets should be as suggested. However, you will see from the limited data that I have, there appears to be some good chances for Multis and possibly a very mild form of progressive staking or recovery staking plans. All of those type of bets carry additional risks, and hence provide additional returns. It is up to you to decide how risk adverse you are. Except Mick, I know that you will just go for it 🙂
Before I provide the data, I will briefly touch on another topic, converting free bets to cash. I have arbed before, but I have never been a sports bettor in a big way. But I am seeing that there are more and more opportunities to make money from Sports, so I am interested. I have converted my free bets to cash, but I was unhappy with the exchange rate I was getting. So I thought that I would ask someone who does it for a living. Josh from Daily Profit was very gracious with his time and advice. Here is his advice for converting free bets to cash (’cause there a plenty of offers out there)
These are the things I look for;
– Correct Score bets on Soccer (EPL most likely). If you can find something to LAY at $12 when the odds are $13 with the bookie this will give a much better conversion then backing/laying something around $6.
– Horse Racing. These odds can move quickly so be careful but getting something close to one another around the $7-$9 mark is what I aim to do here. Once the spring carnival kicks up a gear in the next month, the feature races will have plenty of easy opportunities to do this on a Saturday.
– Horse Racing – late Saturday night pools in the UK have massive liquidity on Betfair so you can sometimes find great conversions on these too if the book you have the free bet with has Fixed Odds open.
Hopefully this helps you out a little bit mate. In essence, the higher the better if you can match odds pretty closely.
The data collected from the new set of ratings – these are my actual bets, these have not been back fitted. Harness racing dividends are ridiculously low, but the strike rate is ridiculously high. Dogs are also rated, but there are too many of races for the dish lickers, so I have left them alone.
|17-Aug||Coffs Harbour||3||2||WICKEDLY RISQUE||3||2.1|
|22-Aug||Alice Springs||1||3||BEL VUITTON||1||2.15|
|22-Aug||Gold Coast||8||12||DO NOT GO GENTLE||2||2.2|
|26-Aug||Warwick Farm||1||1||MORE THAN FABULOUS||2||1.9|
|28-Aug||Alice Springs||5||5||LADY PHROMILY||3||1.75|
|29-Aug||Sunshine Coast||5||1||NEWS EDITOR||2||2.6|
|18-Aug||Gloucester Park||5||3||BUNGALOW BILL||1||1.3|
|19-Aug||Swan Hill||5||6||MACH DENARIO||1||1.9|
|21-Aug||Albion Park||1||5||MAJOR BUDDY||1||1.1|
|22-Aug||Newcastle||1||1||SEE JAK TAT||1||2.1|
|22-Aug||Ballarat||1||5||MY KIWI MATE||2||2.15|
|22-Aug||Globe Derby||3||7||COME ON FRANK||1||1.4|
|26-Aug||Stawell||3||2||MILES OF SMILES||0||1.6|
|27-Aug||Charlton||1||3||BIG SPENDING TELF||4||1.8|
|30-Aug||Dubbo||1||2||GOTTA LOVE GRACE||0||1.7|
|30-Aug||Melton||4||7||OUR WAIKIKI BEACH||1||1.25|