This week we outlaid 32 Units for a return of 37.28 Units, a profit of 5.275 Units, which represent a ROI of 116% (or POT of 16%).
We backed 26 horses for 10 winners (S/R 38%) and 22 Places (S/R 85%). Join us on our site.
Punters Club finally returned to profit after a very lean run. This week the clubs ran for 5 days and returned (over the 5 days) 6.43 Units, which was a ROI of 128.58%
Selections that have been rated as Unders, and therefore no bets are now being sent by email to subscribers, with an Ask For price. The Ask For price equals Overs after Betfair’s commission. Some of these have won at the requested price, and would have further improved our perfomance. If you back these Unders on Betfair, ensure that you take the cancel at In Play option. Taking Unders is a losing long term position.
Below is listed 10 mistakes to avoid. These are from Rick Williams site. Rick is a professional punter, who took over from Ed Kennett as Champion Picks Chief Analyst.
You will probably want to ignore these … BUT these are important. If you don’t read them now, save this and read them thoroughly later. Tick off which ones apply to you. These are the areas that you MUST work on. Mine is laziness. I cost myself money by gambling the free bet. I should have spent the time and found a play that would have returned me at least 75% of the Unibet $30 Free Bet. There are a couple of others on the list, that I have been guilty of in the past, but have corrected those errors over the years.
Top Ten Betting Mistakes
1) Failure to Use Betting Banks
Whatever method or system you are using, whoever you are following or subscribing to or however your own bets are calculated, you need a proper Betting Bank. It needs to be independent from your own personal finances and needs to be protected from factors that can threaten it. This can take a lot of emotion out of the decision making process. Emotion is a factor that threatens all punters and is in my opinion the main reason most punters fail to make money each year.
The vast majority of punters fail to use any form of set aside bank. They bet randomly with whatever money they have in their pocket at the end of the week or go in too deep with stakes far in excess of their personal safety levels.
Those that don’t set up a proper bank will run into problems when the inevitable bad run occurs. Either their bank runs out quickly and they go broke or they lose such a large percentage of their bank in a short period that they lose the confidence to continue betting.
2) Failure to Stake Correctly
It is vital that you consider your betting bank as capped in amount. You do not have an endless pool of resources to dip into. Betting by its nature carries inherent risks. These risks include periods of low strike rates and long losing runs. Your betting bank and staking should be adapted for the method you use.
3) Chasing Losses
Chasing losses at first sight may appear to be an easy way to guarantee an eventual profit but the true story is it is a game for fools and statistically will not work!
Chasing losses is a game for the ill-informed who do not want to make the effort. Bookmakers have to price up every race. Punters don’t have to play in every race, they can pick the races they want to bet in, and that is the main edge that people fail to understand. If you have had a losing day, by attempting to chase your losses you give up that advantage and bet in the races that you should not be betting in. You are therefore betting the way bookmakers want you to and not in the way to win.
Many punters will alter their stakes in the last race either to “chase” losses or “play up” winnings. There will be more racing the next day and the day after that. The secret is waiting for opportunities and only betting when you know you have circumstances which favour you and not the bookmakers. You must never change your approach, or deviate from sensible staking as there is no such things as “The Last Race”.
4) Lack of Value Appreciation
Appreciation of “value” in a bet is core to long term success.
To profit over a long series of bets you must be betting at odds greater than the true chance of winning your selection have. To do this however over the long term, you need to concentrate on each race individually and seek the value in that race.
Many times a punter will screw up a losing betting slip and say “At least I had some value”. There is absolutely NO relationship between value and prices. A 33/1 chance may be diabolical value yet a very short priced favourite may be supreme value. It does not follow that the bigger the price you take the better “value” you have.
Punting is a game of opinions after all and nobody is always right or wrong. The old cliche is that value is about betting a horse whose true chance is better than its price reflects. That’s only a small part of it. You also have to make sure that you bet in the right way and in the right races as that is the only way you can keep strike rates high and protect a betting bank.
You should continually strive to increase value in your bets. Once you have a selection you feel is value do not just take the first acceptable price that comes along. Seek to improve it by shopping around the various bookmakers or try and top the best bookmakers’ price by looking to the betting exchanges.
Marginal improvements on odds on each bet you make can have a dramatic effect on long term profits.
5) Greed For Instant Wealth
Many punters seek the thrill of a life changing bet that will produce huge gains of instant wealth for a small outlay. Bookmakers play on your natural desire and go out of their way to encourage you to bet exotic multiple selection bets that can in one hit, turn a small stake into a large sum.
Professionals however rarely take multis unless there is significant value. Bookmakers relentlessly promote a host of multiple bets with exotic names. The reason they are heavily touted is the profit margin in the bookmaker’s favour increases the more selections you add to your multiple bet.
Say you select any random 5/1 selection. If you bet this as a single the bookmaker may have a theoretical edge in his favour of 15%. Taking two such selections however and betting them in a win double, you have multiplied that 15% edge to the bookmaker.
Yes your win double can produce a much bigger win from the same stake however over the long term the bookmaker is eating away at your capital at a much faster rate.
You can’t approach this as a “Get Rich Quick” scheme. It is a long slow process of serious and sustained profit and not a game for Get Rich Quick schemers. If you look at any of the corporates’ sites, you will see the promotion of multis. Bookmakers want you taking multis and it is easy to see why. They carve most profit from them.
6) Lack of Discipline
Lack of Discipline is the big hurdle for punters trying to turn a losing hobby into a winning one. Bookmakers know that. That’s why the average TAB lounge offers keno, poker machines ,racing from all over the globe with horses nobody has heard of before and even now computer animated, or as they call it, virtual racing.
The TAB believes that it’s a case of punters sitting all day betting on whatever is put in front of them and sadly they are right in many cases .They are simply thrill seeking and don’t care what they bet on, as long as they can bet. There is no methodology at all.
Even more experienced regular gamblers who are savvy enough to turn down bets that they know are stupid always let themselves down by backing a tip here or small interest there.
It takes great discipline to NOT bet at times. It takes discipline to walk away from a horse when the price isn’t right. It takes discipline to say no to that small fun bet. It takes discipline to keep your money in your pocket and deny yourself the emotional buzz of watching your runner.
Punters come in all shapes and sizes. Even the shrewder punters who could win at the game, fall into the trap of lack of discipline of study. After a winning period they forget that what made them winners in the first place, was the effort they put in. They fall victim to over confidence, laziness and indiscipline.
Being a long term successful punter is like swimming against the tide. It takes an effort to stay still, even greater effort to move ahead and as soon as you relax or slack off you start to go backwards.
Betting is a lonely game. It’s also a highly skilled game. Emotion undermines success in many ways. There is comfort in knowing that as a sheep when you are wrong it is not your fault as you were simply doing what everyone else was doing. With betting, the laws of market supply and demand, dictate that long term, the sheep will get fleeced. Emotion neutralises discipline and long proven successful practices. The result of any isolated race has little or no relation to races just before that or just after that. Races should be viewed in isolation from each other. We are all emotional in betting but the players at the top of the tree have this down to a fine art and can control those emotions. Other punters have long since been conditioned by bookmakers to EXPECT to lose rather than win.
They have an in built psychological factor that makes them feel like losers and they have been conditioned to losing by years of doing so.
Over 95% of punters are flawed emotionally. Examples of emotive gambling include punters following a horse, trainer or a jockey blindly. The “Hype” horses are cannon fodder for emotional punters. They may also follow tipsters blind as they “hate” the thought of missing out on a winner.
They misunderstand confidence and can’t cope with a lack of confidence. Emotion also prevents people from advanced betting subjects such as laying, hedging and arbitrages.
Most punters have a grudge against their own money and winning and being successful is alien to them. Emotional punters lose their heads in barren times and fail to capitalise on winning runs. They mess about with systems and staking plans that make no sense.
The more emotion you can rule out of your betting, the more successful you will become. Once you can master your emotions you have made the first big step to betting profitably.
8) The Grass is Greener
The grass is rarely Greener on the Other Side. The truth is that the grass that isn’t working for you has not been grown, cultivated or looked after properly. Many punters change approaches and methods so quickly that they don’t give any method a true test. If they find a method that works they don’t continue after a few bad results.
They are like children with new toys at Christmas. They never stay with any method long enough to prosper. They always feel the” Grass is Greener”, when in truth the “Grass” they are using has been abused and left to deteriorate.
They want to find the next rising tipster and that doesn’t work either as the fault lies not in the Grass, but the Gardener.
They have no long term consistency in their betting and are constantly tinkering with what wasn’t broke or moving on in search of the holy grail before a full evaluation of what they are currently examining has been completed.
You will do far better long term if you can make a concentrated effort of learning and research in one key area rather than flitting from this to that.
Most punters are LAZY! They have religiously followed a doctrine of poor planning and lack of research. They refuse to study and spend hours looking at how they can win at betting. They refuse to invest in the game and invest in their own learning. You can’t refuse to spend money, just look at the racing for 30 minutes and expect to win long term. You simply can’t get away with that in the hardest trade of all. If it was that easy, then millions would do it .You must either invest in your betting, or pay someone to do just that.
Natural human tendency is to try and get away with the least amount of effort. Lazy punters are cannon fodder for the bookmakers. They make little or no effort in their selection process nor make an effort to extract maximum returns from their bets. Those who put the most work in are the more likely to succeed.
Amazingly most punters fail to learn from their mistakes. They continue for years making the same basic errors time and time again. Pure stupidity.
Strive to improve your betting performance by continually learning from the mistakes and weakness is your game.
The bookies may have been laughing at you for years. You have it in your power however to improve your betting. Do so!