After Saturday I thought the Racing Gods may have been kind to us on Sunday. I should have known better. A violent storm cell passed over Cranbourne before Race 10. With dead air to fill the commentators starting reviewing runners form and price. They decided that Azkadellia’s stable mate, Here To There was Over Priced at $34. Then we saw a typical stock market type reaction. His price started to shorten and they highlighted it each time it shortened. They discussed that you had already missed out on the $34, but he was now down to $17. Eventually the herd mentality drove him to become favourite at $3.50. Azkadellia’s price blew out, and of course I had taken the fixed $2.50. If you took TT+, SP or TF then you got $4.40 for her win. The Racing Gods must have been laughing up in those clouds.
Super One (Cranbourne Race 7) I took at TT+ as I thought the $1.65 was way too short. He started at $2.10, which was a fair price. After winning The Magic Millions in Singapore the colt was tipped as being a future super star. If he was half as good as his write ups, then he should have beaten this field by 10 lengths. Guess he didn’t live up to his own press.
The Punters Club this week had it’s ups and downs, but basically lost about 40%. Of course when I trialled this during September it was like printing money. Hopefully this week was just a blip on the radar.
To our Selections:
From 1 to 11 October 2015, there 53.75 Units outlaid (including early Saturday Bets), with 36 Units returned, for a loss of 17.75 Units.
The New Ratings selected 20 horses for 3 winners (S/R 15%) and 14 Places (S/R 70%). There 24.25 Units outlaid, with 9.60 Units returned, for a loss of 14.65 Units. Again we have had a rash of places. In view of this I have tightened up the algorithm for the New Ratings. There will be less selections, but hopefully we can return to our 40% S/R.
The Old Ratings were resurrected in October, after a poor winter from them. There were 14 horses selected, of which 8 were either backed E/W or mainly for the place. 43% of those 14 selections returned a positive outcome. There were 24 Units invested with 25.90 Units returned for a profit of 1.90 Units.