The week was book ended by two winners. We started the week with “We’ve Got This” winning for us at Geelong, and ended the week with “Riva Romantica” winning at the Sunshine Coast today. Unfortunately there was nothing in-between. There were 9 Selections for 2 Wins (22% S/R) and 4 Places (44% S/R). There were 13.75 Units outlaid and 7.50 Units returned, for a loss of 6.25 Units.
The Punters Club selections that Matt and I are trialing are a nightmare. So far in October 119.3 Units have been lost. The staking is too aggressive, and although the bank doubled in September, that has now all been returned and almost 20% of the original bank lost with it. The Punters Club has returned to it’s original format, with the bank staked on selections. I have Dutched some races, when there have been no selections, with some success, but the returns are often around the 7% area. Australian races can be difficult to Dutch because of the lack of liquidity in the markets. English races are much easier to dutch.
I have been watching a couple of professional punters, who previously worked as analysts for Champion Picks. Both have started their own selection services. Very expensive services actually. I don’t know what it is about this year, but lots of pros are struggling with their selections (or tips). It is not the norm for professional punters to only back one horse in a race. Depending on the odds and the Overs available, they can back 3,4, or 5 horses in a race. If the race is not suitable for investment, then they walk away from it. The bookies have to field a book on every race. We don’t have to bet on every race. We can just bet on the races where we have an advantage.
The Selections are just one part of my punting arsenal. Previously they have been successful, and I remain confident that they will become successful again. But there are many other ways that you can win on the punt.
With the Carnivals happening now, it is a feeding frenzy among the bookies, to offer you free bets and bonuses. The Bookies want turnover. They are like the Poker Machines, they make a percentage profit on Turnover. The higher the turnover the greater the profit. Talking about Poker Machines, the ABC recently aired a program about the tricks used to hook gamblers. Although about poker machines, many of the tactics are relevant to Bookies vs The Punter on horse racing. Worth a watch if you can get iView http://iview.abc.net.au/programs/ka-ching-pokie-nation/DO1406H001S00.
But back to Bookie bonuses. On Saturday, Unibet were refunding your bet on Moonee Valley Race 1, (up to $30) if the bet lost. I had a $30 bet on Sweet Sherry, and I laid Sweet Sherry on Betfair. If Sweet Sherry had won the race, I would have lost about $5. As it was Sweet Sherry finished well back. I won my Lay Bet, Unibet gave me a bonus bet of $30, which I converted into a $24 win, by backing and laying another horse, later in the day. So I showed around $54 profit on Race 1 at Moonee Valley.
William Hill were offering Money Back if your horse doesn’t win, but finishes in the first half of the field (Max $25). I picked horses whose odds were reasonably close on both the Back and the Lay side of the bet (usually around the 5/1 – 7/1 price), and backed them and laid them. Unfortunately I picked Dalradian in Race 1, as a fair bit of money had been specked on course. Dalradian won and I lost about $6.50. In Race 2 I backed and layed Diamond Oasis, who finished 2nd. $25 cash back from William Hill, plus $25 won on the Lay Bet. In Race 3 I was out of luck again, I backed My Poppette who duly won the race, so no cash back and a $5 loss on the lay portion of the bet. In Race 4, I thought I was in trouble again, but luckily Holler (who I had backed elsewhere) beat Brokhoff, to give me my second Cash Back and second winning Lay bet. I won two Lay Bets ($50) and lost $11.50 on picking the two winners. Profit of $38.50. William Hill are running the same promotion again at Flemington. Without boring you about the rest of the strategies, checkout the promotions that your Bookies have on offer. Josh at Daily Profit, is a wizz on making money from these promotions. I have no affiliation with them, but they are good guys. Either join their Risk Free/Value Bets service, or shoot me an email if you have any questions on using the bonuses. It takes some work, but it can be profitable or you can pay Josh to do the work for you.