Must be the change in seasons, but I have found myself reflecting on my current journey, so far. More of that later, how did we go in May?
We had 50 bets, and found 17 Winners. A strike rate of 34%. The maths, of course, are not as straight forward as that, as we backed 14 of these for a place as well. Four of these placed, a 29% Strike Rate, but they did give us Faatinah at Morphettville on 7 May ($17.70 the win and $4.90 the Place) and at Doomben on 28 May we found Kamacite at $18 the win and $4.20 the place. The selections that were backed for a win and a place, returned a Profit On Turnover (POT) of 30%.
During May 2016 there were 67 Units outlaid, with a return of 84.92 units. A profit of 17.92 Units or a 27% POT. Not everyone will have achieved those exact figures. It depends on the price you have taken. Generally I take TT+ on Saturday meetings. Most times I get the best price, but sometimes I would have been better with TF or Fixed. Also I haven’t taken into account any refunds or free bets from promotions, as not everyone may always get those promotions. They are worth looking out for. It is nice when you just miss the win, but the Bookie refunds your bet.
The other deciding factor is whether people are subscribers or casual users of the service. Subscribers will always get every horse racing bet that I am making. Because of family commitments I don’t always get to post the bets on Punters or GTO. Casual users will only get a portion of my actual bets.
So what was I reflecting on? Firstly this started by accident. In 2009 I had some health issues and basically stopped everything. In December 2014, I decided that I was ready to re-enter the world of punting. I was wrong. 2015 was the worst year I have ever had, and it really started to shake my confidence. I had to try very hard to keep it all together during 2015. As part of re-entering the gambling world, I wanted to ensure that I wasn’t deluding myself as to my actual achievements, so I began posting my bets on Punters, to ensure an independent monitoring of my performance. I started off in unbelievable form, and attracted some subscribers. During 2015, though the performance slipped away, as did a number of subscribers. January 2016 I was ready to make a fresh start, and of course had an absolute disaster. More subscribers slipped away, and I was left with a basic core of believers.
So what had gone so wrong? I was betting to make the big score. That meant was I was being too aggressive in my staking, and too aggressive in my selections. The old, “I don’t want to miss a winner”, philosophy. You kick yourself when you miss an $18 winner, of course you conveniently forget about the 25 losers that were also selected with that winner.
In February 2016, I reverted to less selections, and a less aggressive staking plan. The change in philosophy showed immediate benefits, with February 2016 recording a 13.53 Unit profit. Subsequent months continued the profitable trend, March +24.68 units; April +2.19 Units and now May +17.92 units. With four solid months behind me, I now have the selection and staking processes pretty well locked in stone. And I reflect on the subscribers who left. Some were never going to change and would continue to make irrational bets, looking for the BIG WIN. Others would have gone to another service and will stay with them for a short time, until they repeat the never ending cycle of looking for the silver bullet that will give them winner after winner and undreamed of wealth. Gambling is a business, in which Time, Capital and Expertise must be invested. If you find yourself lacking in any area, you must invest more from the other areas. If you lack some expertise, then you invest capital to buy that expertise, or invest more time to gain the expertise.
Touch wood, we are back to a steady investment and return strategy, and the original 2015 plan, comes back into play. Your unit should always be 1% or 2% of an ACTUAL betting bank. I began this journey, for a small punter with a $1,000 bank, and I have worked on a 1% unit ($10). Despite the earlier aggressive approach, the Bank was never in any serious danger, although at one stage about half of it was lost. The bank has reclaimed those losses and is pretty close to the original $1,000 bank. The process now is to continue to increase the bank, with a view to doubling it. Once it has been doubled (i.e. $2,000) half of that increase ($500) will be used to either retire debt, if you have any, or to invest in passive income (e.g .shares). The other half of the increase will be used to create a new bank of $1,500 and the process starts again. This is the long term business plan that you need to make for yourself.
You often hear me talk about Daily Profit. I think the list is now closed and there is a waiting list to join. My results from my Sports Betting through Daily Profit are:
Jan 2016 + 250 Units
Feb 2016 -1.4 Units
Mar 2016 +60 Units
Apr 2016 +5 Units
May 2016 +131 Units
A total of +403 Units profit. A lot of these bets are limited to bet sizes by the bookies, so these figures can not be extrapolated out to show incredible profits, but that is over $4,000 in 5 months. Again you can see that it is not like a wage. If you had joined in February, you would have lost. If you left after March, you would have missed out on May.
I am also trialing their VIP service, but currently it is at a break-even point for me (+1% Profit). The NRL selections have been brilliant, and are returning 15.7% Profit. The AFL is showing a slight loss, but is expected to improve as the season progresses and more data is available for the model. Super Rugby has been disappointing, and from my knowledge of Rugby, I am not too sure how a model would cope with some of the mental aspects of the game. I only joined at the tail end of the American games (NHL, NFL & NBA) but they broke about even. It looks likely that I will continue to follow the AFL & NRL models, next year, but with higher units.
So that’s it for May and the year to date. Let’s just keep making money.