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simpson-dohWell it had to happen! I had a bad month. Not only was it a bad month, but I made it worse by breaking just about all of my rules.  I chased losses and I bet without an edge at times.  The loss for the month was $110, and I can easily find more than that amount in bad bets that I made.  So the month should have been at least break even or marginally profitable.  YTD I have invested $266,790 for a profit of $12,654 (4.74% POT).  I also realised this month, that all original capital has been withdrawn from my accounts, leaving only the $12,654 winnings in the accounts.  Bet units have been recalculated on this lower bank.  This also means that I need to work harder on my budget, to avoid future draw-downs from the betting banks.

Racing Portfolio

$6,600 was invested for a loss of $167 (-2.50%). YTD $34,757 has been invested for a profit of $180 (+0.50% POT).  Subscription costs are around $300 per month, for these services, which would mean that financially I would be losing about $2,000 YTD.

The first service in the Racing Portfolio is David Evans Pro Punt.  This was the service that I dropped last year, but it had a late surge to end up in profit, and I subscribed to the service for 2017. In July I invested $1,377 for a loss of $156 (-11.33% POT).  YTD David’s selections have lost $346 (-4.55% POT), plus $700 in subscriptions, would result in a cost to the bank of –$1,046.

Ed Kennett of Red Belly Sports was to be my main provider for horse racing tips.  Unfortunately Ed suffered some health issues in July, and we lost a few weeks of the month for this service.  In July there was $1,521 invested for a loss of -$893 (-58.7% POT).  YTD there has been $18,700 invested in Ed’s service for a loss of $971 (-5% POT), and after including around $700 in subscription fees, this would represent a loss to the bank of $1,671.

An Offshoot of Red Belly has been the Perth Ratings. In July $630 was invested for a profit of $955 (151.6% POT). YTD these ratings have produced a profit of $1,583 (6% POT). This has obviously been an outstanding investment, probably due to the isolation of the West, with a limited number of horses, trainers and jockeys.  I have heard other professional punters describe Perth racing as their personal ATM.  If these sort of results continue, it is envisaged that this will become my main service.  Substantially less work and time involved in the Perth Ratings as opposed to the Red Belly Service.

Maiden Mail and now Stable Mail, from Cameron Walsh were included into the racing portfolio, without previous results available to evaluate the service. In July the service lost $94 (-4.3% POT) and YTD the service is showing $106 (-2.17 %), plus subscription fees of $700, results in a cost to the bank of $806.  Cameron also runs a free FaceBook page, Whispering Winners, which includes Tips from Wally in the West.  These tips are ad hoc, and I find it difficult to get alerts when they are posted.  I have noticed that the Best Bets seem to have some good performances. During July I invested $891 on some of their tips and showed a profit of $20 (+2.25% POT).  I think that I will keep Whispering Winners in mind for future investigation.  I remain undecided on whether to pay the August Invoice and renew my subscription to the Mail services. A lot of the Stable Mail selections mirror David Evan’s selections.

Sports Betting Portfolio

Value Bets from Daily Profit returned a profit of $583 (+5.6% POT) for July.  YTD the Value Bets are in profit by $6,116 (+5.8% POT). This component continues to return a steady and consistent profit each month, and is ideal for establishing a $10K bank and if you can manage to not get Promo Banned, can add that amount to your betting bank each year.   I will write a separate paper on betting strategies, and keeping your promotions.

SportsPunter, which is the gambling arm of Daily Profit, returned a loss of $1,227 (-20.23% POT).   The SportsPunter service is in profit by $1,525 for the year (+5.8% POT).\, which is encouraging, however the magnitude of the July loss, provides a worrying scenario for future losses.  An analysis of the bets show that there is little difference in performance between AFL and NRL.  However, the line bets in the AFL are performing poorly.  The line bets were dropped from NRL as they were unprofitable. I will now drop the line bets for the remainder of the AFL season, as they appear to have the most volatility.

My Bets returned a profit of $606 (+3.8% POT) during July and are showing a profit of $2,930 (+3.37% POT) for the year. My bets are generally using the value tactics learned from the Daily Profit Value Bets.

The graph shows a steady line for June and July, which is disappointing.  But it is the ability to stick to your plan during the hard times, that will determine whether you finish as a winner or a loser.  I look forward to a disciplined August.

July 2017