Currently we have 3 methods of selecting our horses to invest on.
These may be seen as generally Best Bets. The horses that appear in this section have form that indicates that they are the likely winner. Their prices are considered to represent value, or at least they are not UNDERS. This is basically a short hand way of punting, as it takes less time to select the horses.
At times there are selections, that don’t quite make them as the most likely to win their race. But they are still a chance, and the odds on offer make them an attractive each way bet. Because I am conservative the bets on these are weighted more heavily towards the place.
These selections are provided to me. The Investor is not a Punter, but has a track record of making money from backing horses. Generally there will be 2 horses selected per quality race, at odds that will allow a return if either of them win.
The most time intensive manner of all of them. But semi-professional and professional punters, will use similar systems to frame their bets for the day.
Ratings will estimate the chances of horses winning a race and express that chance as a percentage. The percentages will be adjusted until the race ends up at 100%. Perhaps an outsider will have his percentage reduced, or a clear favourite will have his tightened. Once the race is at 100%, those percentages are converted into odds. e.g. A 50% chance of winning a race is 2/1 or EVENS.
The next step is to compare those assessed odds against the market odds being offered. Where the market odds are greater that the assessed odds, then that is considered a bet. Generally you look for quality races, and where you think you can realistically select the winner for 2 or 3 horses.
Having identified the horses to bet on, now you need to work out how much to invest on each. You look at their winning chances expressed as a percentage, and use that percentage to calculate your bet.
From today’s ratings (7 Feb 2015) in Sandown Race 1 Jacquinot Bay is rated as a 50% chance of winning ($2) and Mister Milton was rated as the second best at 15.5% chance of winning ($5.50). The bets are calculated on a $500 bank for a conservative punter, using a number of formulas. The bets suggested today were Jacquinot Bay $7 and Mister Milton $2. Jacquinot Bay won paying $2 (the assessed odds).
For a professional or semi-pros will calculate their bets on banks of $10k plus. On a $10K bank the bets would have been $149 and $35. On the last race in Sandown you would have been betting $100 on 12/1 chance … that won :-). That is wonderful in hindsight, but how would you feel at the time?
With the Ratings I am providing the selection and the calculated bet, on a $500 bank for a conservative punter. If you have a larger bank, or you are not conservative, then you can vary the amounts. But basically maintain the ratios.
I hope all of that helps a bit in understanding our methods of operating.