March 2017 felt like I was treading water for the month. At one stage a professional punter warned me that Sports Betting was a losing proposition and that I should restrict my punting to the horses. I had hoped that Race betting would form the backbone of my investments. And it still might, just not at the moment. Profit for March 2017 was $1,460, comprised of:
- Pro Bet (Racing) -$383;
- Red Belly (Racing) -$1,014;
- My Bets (Racing) -$270;
- Sportspunter (Sports) +$2,186;
- Value Bets (Mainly Sports) +$744;
- Trademate (Sports) -$217.
An quarterly analysis of each of the above strategies follow.
Pro Bet Racing (David Evans)
A loss of -$387 for the quarter. I invested $5,709 on his selections which is a negative Profit on Turnover (POT) of -6.8%. There were 235 bets for 94 collects, a Strike Rate (S/R) of 40%. It is worthwhile noting that the bets do not equal the number of selections, as many bets on one selection were spread over a number of bookmakers, in an effort to keep my bonuses with those bookmakers. Fair to say a disappointing quarter, from a selection service that I originally was not going to follow. I am committed to a full year, and the target is $1,000 profit for the service.
Red Belly Sports (Ed Kennett)
A professional sports punter warned me that he could never achieve the prices that Ed achieved, and that he blew his Red Belly bank very quickly, and that he would never consider that service again. I think that this may have been during Ed’s Champion Picks days. I must say that I have difficulty achieving some of the prices that Ed achieves. But that is mainly because I bet with Bookies that are offering refunds or fee bets, if the selection runs 2nd or 3rd, and I often bet with Bookies to keep my bonuses open. In that case it is my decision to take a lower price, to play the bonuses or to keep my bonuses. Although on Saturday I got $6.50 for a winner, that Ed got at $9. Maybe I need to revise my thinking, and bet small amounts with Bookies on Red Belly selections as “My Bets” and bet suggested units at the best price for Red Belly. Although I still pay a 6% Betfair Commission, so if the $9 achieved was at Betfair, then that would equate to roughly $8.46, which admittedly is still better than my $6.50. For the quarter I achieved a loss of -$20 on this service. Unfortunately when the price of the subscription is considered, $787 for the quarter, this makes a sizeable hole in my small bank. Maybe I am just not a big enough punter, to be using this service at the moment. I won a $1,000 contest on Red Belly Live, and asked that my subscription be extended, rather than take the money. I haven’t received confirmation of my subscription period extension. So I guess at the moment I will keep betting with them until they advise that my subscription has expired. At over $250 a month, it may be that I am not a big enough player yet, to bet with these guys.
My bets mainly consist of Value Offerings from Bookies on Saturday Race days. Where an offer is made for a Cash Refund or Bonus Bet for finishing 2nd or 3rd (or in the first half of the field), I will back and Lay for a small Loss (or Profit) and hope to hit the Bonus. Free bets are converted at around 70% of their face value. A $50 Free Bet is generally converted at around $35. Where inflated odds are offered (“Lay Of The Day”) I back at the inflated odds and lay at lower odds for a guaranteed profit. My profit for the quarter was +$1,730, from $45,193 invested (POT +3.8%). There were 440 bets for 207 winners (47% S/R).
I access my SportPunter selections through Daily Profit. They come an hour later, so the top prices are gone, but they are at a much reduced price. I did stop following the NBA, but when I read that they had started hitting profits there, I began following the NBA in March. My main focus with them though is NRL and AFL. For the quarter they made a profit of +$2,192, from and investment of $4,643 (POT 47.2%). There were 89 Bets for 56 winners (S/R 62.9%). Both major Aussie footy codes have just started, so hopefully these sort of profits continue over the winter.
The Risk Free and Value service returned +$2,807 profit for the quarter, from an investment of $53,388 (POT 5.3%). There were 748 bets for 379 winners (S/R 50.7%), as would be expected from a back/lay approach. It should be noted that an additional couple of hundred dollars were earned from converting bonuses, but they will show up in the April results. I have been bonus banned from Blue Bet and PalmerBet now. But as long as I can keep my bonuses at the other Corprorates, I can keep earning here. Crownbet doesn’t give Bonus bets, rather they give Reward Points. The value is that they don’t expire. At the end of the quarter there is around $400 of Reward Points available at Crownbet, which when converted will return an additional $280 to the Daily Profit portfolio.
I began testing Trademate on a Free Trial with Daily Profit. The product is now on offer at $175 per month. Firstly this was a pretty steep learning curve, as there are literally hundreds of Trades available 24/7 from all around the world, on every conceivable sport. After some trial and error I set my feed to the following settings:
- All Bookmakers;
- Odds 1.80 to 5 (less than 1.8 risks too much for a low reward. Above 5 seems to give poor returns);
- Edge 3% to 25%. No idea why I picked that range. Guess I wasn’t interested in betting with 1% edges, and figured that over a 25% edge was probably an error.
- Hours before the game 0-24. The closer the bet to the game time, the more accurate the edge will be. I know some set it for a lot shorter, such as 1 hour before game time. That would require more monitoring than I am prepared to do, so I set it out to 24 hours before the event.
- Only Recommended Leagues. This is an attempt to avoid getting limited or banned by the Corporates. And I only bet on the major leagues, such as EPL, NRL, AFL, NBA etc. A league where the volume of money is sufficient to provide an accurate edge. Where I have been Bonus Banned (eg Blue Bet) then I will bet on any League with them.
- In the graph below, the Blue Line represents actual Profits, the Black Line represents expected profits (using the edge available when the bet was placed), and The Green Line represents Expected Profits (using the edge available when the match started)
- At first I was trading on Multi Trades on an event. This is probably OK if you have the bank size to do it. But I quickly learned that there are huge swings in Multi Trades. So I settled on a less volatile model, and when I have a bet with one bookmaker on an event, I will ignore all other similar Trades with the other Books.
- Pride and a a temper resulted in major downturn on my profits. When I was Bonus Banned from Blue Bet, I thought that I would show them and unleash my new secret weapon on them. I opened up Blue Bet to trade on anything at any odds, and then placed a bet at 4 times my normal bet and followed it up with one that was double my normal bet. Of course both lost. BlueBet got my money, rather than a lesson, and I had destroyed a nice upward trend on my graph, which I am still trying to recover from. The couple of big drops in the graph after that event, are simply variance equaling out and moving my actual results closer to the expected results.
- I invested $8,594 for the quarter for a profit of +$593 (POT 7%). There were 270 bets for 179 winners (S/R 47.8%).
I have started following another Professional Punter who will remain nameless. There was 1 bet on 31 March for a winner. I will report on his results next month.
Although I was hopeful of achieving a $1,000 profit per week, my bank is not large enough to accommodate that desire. I have been negotiating a property settlement for over a year now, and was hoping that the some of the funds from that would allow me to increase my bank size. But as that settlement continues to be stalled, I will reduce my expectations for 2017. During the first quarter of 2017 I made a profit of +$8,118, which equates to about $624 per week. I will re-adjust my target to $500 profit per week, which, if achieved, will result in an annual profit of $26,000, less subscription costs.
Graph for 1st Quarter 2017