March 2017 – Month In Review and 1st Quarter Report

treading-water-matthew-miloneMarch 2017 felt like I was treading water for the month.  At one stage a professional punter warned me that Sports Betting was a losing proposition and that I should restrict my punting to the horses.  I had hoped that Race betting would form the backbone of my investments. And it still might, just not at the moment. Profit for March 2017 was $1,460, comprised of:

  • Pro Bet (Racing) -$383;
  • Red Belly (Racing) -$1,014;
  • My Bets (Racing)  -$270;
  • Sportspunter (Sports) +$2,186;
  • Value Bets (Mainly Sports) +$744;
  • Trademate (Sports) -$217.

An quarterly analysis of each of the above strategies follow.

ProBet_logoPro Bet Racing (David Evans) 

A loss of -$387 for the quarter. I invested $5,709 on his selections which is a negative Profit on Turnover (POT) of -6.8%. There were 235 bets for 94 collects, a Strike Rate (S/R) of 40%.  It is worthwhile noting that the bets do not equal the number of selections, as many bets on one selection were spread over a number of bookmakers, in an effort to keep my bonuses with those bookmakers. Fair to say a disappointing quarter, from a selection service that I originally was not going to follow. I am committed to a full year, and the target is $1,000 profit for the service. 

red belly logoRed Belly Sports (Ed Kennett)

A professional sports punter warned me that he could never achieve the prices that Ed achieved, and that he blew his Red Belly bank very quickly, and that he would never consider that service again.  I think that this may have been during Ed’s Champion Picks days.  I must say that I have difficulty achieving some of the prices that Ed achieves. But that is mainly because I bet with Bookies that are offering refunds or fee bets, if the selection runs 2nd or 3rd, and I often bet with Bookies to keep my bonuses open.  In that case it is my decision to take a lower price, to play the bonuses or to keep my bonuses.  Although on Saturday I got $6.50 for a winner, that Ed got at $9.  Maybe I need to revise my thinking, and bet small amounts with Bookies on Red Belly selections as “My Bets” and bet suggested units at the best price for Red Belly.  Although I still pay a 6% Betfair Commission, so if the $9 achieved was at Betfair, then that would equate to roughly $8.46, which admittedly is still better than my $6.50. For the quarter I achieved a loss of -$20 on this service.  Unfortunately when the price of the subscription is considered, $787 for the quarter, this makes a sizeable hole in my small bank.  Maybe I am just not a big enough punter, to be using this service at the moment.  I won a $1,000 contest on Red Belly Live, and asked that my subscription be extended, rather than take the money.  I haven’t received confirmation of my subscription period extension. So I guess at the moment I will keep betting with them until they advise that my subscription has expired. At over $250 a month, it may be that I am not a big enough player yet, to bet with these guys.

Punters FriendMy Bets

My bets mainly consist of Value Offerings from Bookies on Saturday Race days.  Where an offer is made for a Cash Refund or Bonus Bet for finishing 2nd or 3rd (or in the first half of the field), I will back and Lay for a small Loss (or Profit) and hope to hit the Bonus.  Free bets are converted at around 70% of their face value. A $50 Free Bet is generally converted at around $35.  Where inflated odds are offered (“Lay Of The Day”) I back at the inflated odds and lay at lower odds for a guaranteed profit. My profit for the quarter was +$1,730, from $45,193 invested (POT +3.8%).  There were 440 bets for 207 winners (47% S/R).

Sport Punter logoSportPunter

I access my SportPunter selections through Daily Profit.  They come an hour later, so the top prices are gone, but they are at a much reduced price. I did stop following the NBA, but when I read that they had started hitting profits there, I began following the NBA in March.  My main focus with them though is NRL and AFL. For the quarter they made a profit of +$2,192, from and investment of $4,643 (POT 47.2%). There were 89 Bets for 56 winners (S/R 62.9%).  Both major Aussie footy codes have just started, so hopefully these sort of profits continue over the winter.

Daicf9e6-dplogoly Profit

The Risk Free and Value service returned +$2,807 profit for the quarter, from an investment of $53,388 (POT 5.3%).  There were 748 bets for 379 winners (S/R 50.7%), as would be expected from a back/lay approach.  It should be noted that an additional couple of hundred dollars were earned from converting bonuses, but they will show up in the April results. I have been bonus banned from Blue Bet and PalmerBet now.  But as long as I can keep my bonuses at the other Corprorates, I can keep earning here.  Crownbet doesn’t give Bonus bets, rather they give Reward Points.  The value is that they don’t expire. At the end of the quarter there is around $400 of Reward Points available at Crownbet, which when converted will return an additional $280 to the Daily Profit portfolio.


I began testing Trademate on a Free Trial with Daily Profit. The product is now on offer at $175 per month.  Firstly this was a pretty steep learning curve, as there are literally hundreds of Trades available 24/7 from all around the world, on every conceivable sport.  After some trial and error I set my feed to the following settings:

  • All Bookmakers;
  • Odds 1.80 to 5 (less than 1.8 risks too much for a low reward. Above 5 seems to give poor returns);
  • Edge 3% to 25%. No idea why I picked that range.  Guess I wasn’t interested in betting with 1% edges, and figured that over a 25% edge was probably an error.
  • Hours before the game 0-24.  The closer the bet to the game time, the more accurate the edge will be.  I know some set it for a lot shorter, such as 1 hour before game time.  That would require more monitoring than I am prepared to do, so I set it out to 24 hours before the event.
  • Only Recommended Leagues. This is an attempt to avoid getting limited or banned by the Corporates.  And I only bet on the major leagues, such as EPL, NRL, AFL, NBA etc.  A league where the volume of money is sufficient to provide an accurate edge. Where I have been Bonus Banned (eg Blue Bet) then I will bet on any League with them.
  • In the graph below, the Blue Line represents actual Profits, the Black Line represents expected profits (using the edge available when the bet was placed), and The Green Line represents Expected Profits (using the edge available when the match started)
  • At first I was trading on Multi Trades on an event.  This is probably OK if you have the bank size to do it.  But I quickly learned that there are huge swings in Multi Trades.  So I settled on a less volatile model, and when I have a bet with one bookmaker on an event, I will ignore all other similar Trades with the other Books.
  • Pride and a a temper resulted in major downturn on my profits. When I was Bonus Banned from Blue Bet, I thought that I would show them and unleash my new secret weapon on them.  I opened up Blue Bet to trade on anything at any odds, and then placed a bet at 4 times my normal bet and followed it up with one that was double my normal bet. Of course both lost. BlueBet got my money, rather than a lesson, and I had destroyed a nice upward trend on my graph, which I am still trying to recover from.   The couple of big drops in the graph after that event, are simply variance equaling out and moving my actual results closer to the expected results.
  • I invested $8,594 for the quarter for a profit of +$593 (POT 7%).  There were 270 bets for 179 winners (S/R 47.8%).

Trade Mate

I have started following another Professional Punter who will remain nameless. There was 1 bet on 31 March for a winner.  I will report on his results next month.

Although I was hopeful of achieving a $1,000 profit per week, my bank is not large enough to accommodate that desire.  I have been negotiating a property settlement for over a year now, and was hoping that the some of the funds from that would allow me to increase my bank size.  But as that settlement continues to be stalled, I will reduce my expectations for 2017. During the first quarter of 2017 I made a profit of +$8,118, which equates to about $624 per week.  I will re-adjust my target to $500 profit per week, which, if achieved, will result in an annual profit of $26,000, less subscription costs.

Graph for 1st Quarter 2017

2017 - Qtr 01


February 2017 ~ The Month In Review


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Businessman-Walking-to-Top-of-Bar-Graph-with-Upward-Arrow-960x645In February 2017, I made a profit of +$4,057 (+10% POT), which meets my target of $1,000 per week profit.

On David Evans (ProBet) I outlaid $3,257 and made a profit of +$345 (+10.6% POT) , with a 54% Strike Rate.

On Ed Kennett’s selections (Red Belly Sports) I outlaid $3,591 and made a profit of +$433 (+12% POT) . Ed backs to win a race, not to pick winning horses, so Strike Rates are not relevant for Ed’s methods.

I outlaid $22,087 on my bets and made a profit of +$1,544 (+7% POT). My bets generally consist of backing and laying the same bets, to either arb a proposition or win a bonus bet.

Daily Profit:

  • Sportpunter won 2 out of 3 bets in the AFL Preseason and made a profit of $6.  With the AFL & NRL starting these bets will ramp up considerably over Autumn and Winter.
  • Value Bets accounted for $5,920 of bets, for a profit of +$850 (+14% POT).

Trademate invested $4,779 for a profit of +$810 (+17% POT), from 141 bets for the month, with 72 winners (51% S/R).

During February I dabbled with a program called Plunge, where it alerted you to Plunges on horse racing. I made a profit of $22, but won’t be continuing with the program. It is not part of my betting strategy and is too prone to being misled by weak country maidens.

For the Year To Date, I have outlaid $84,435 for a profit of  +$6,657 (+7.8% POT). 

Summer has finished and now we move into Autumn.

Tips, recommendations and commentary are for entertainment only. We provide no warranty about accuracy or completeness. You should make your own assessment before placing a bet.

20 ~ 26 February 2017


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bannedThe week started with a $100 bet on the NBA at Palmerbet, which elicited the following response:
Going forward, please be aware that your account is no longer eligible for promotional bonuses. This includes, but is not exclusive to Bonus Bets, Freebets, Account Top-Ups, refer a friend or any other promotional products such as Moneyback 2nd or 3rd and Even money lines.

If the Corporates could actually work with punters, rather than against them, then they would realise that rather than banning Traders, they should be welcoming them. Traders will bet on the promotions, and if they get a bonus bet, they will purposefully lose that bet with the Corporate, in order, to get paid around 70% of the bonus in cash with Betfair. The Corporates therefore get more cash flow, because we won’t be betting on these events with them, without the bonuses. And they get more profit, because they win our losing bets, eventually.  It is a nuisance, but other bookies offer the same bonuses as PalmerBet, so my bets just go to those other bookies, rather than PalmerBet.

On to more positive things in the world of gambling. Profit this week was +$930.40 (+10% POT).  Plus I have a $50 Bonus Bet from William Hill that will convert to $30 cash.  Didn’t quite make the thousand this week, but I will call it close enough 🙂

David Evans ~ ProBet won +$154 (+18% POT)

Ed Kennett – Red Belly Sports won +$200 (+16% POT), despite having a losing Saturday

My Bets won +$324 (+5% POT), chasing bonuses and backing horse racing specials and laying the same bets for a profit.

Daily Profit ~ SportsPunter, which is the pure gambling side of the site, won +$6 (+8.6% POT), on the AFL Preseason games.  The majority of bets for this product will be the AFL & NRL games.

Daily Profit ~ Value Bets won +$1 (+0.2% POT). There is little action at this time of the year, as we transition from the Summer to Winter sports.

Daily Profit ~ TradeMate won +$225 (+48% POT). This product continues to do well for me. There have been some comments, that people are in the negative using this product.  But with my parameters and sticking only to the major sports (mostly), I continue to make good profits from the program.  So it looks like this will be a permanent part of my betting portfolio.

Two days until the end of this month, and then I will do monthly updates.

Tips, recommendations and commentary are for entertainment only. We provide no warranty about accuracy or completeness. You should make your own assessment before placing a bet.

13 ~ 19 February 2017


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roller-coasterThis week has been a real Roller Coaster, mainly because I lost discipline and focus. At one stage I was staring down a $300-$400 loss. Most of that loss was caused by betting with the assistance of a few Jim Beams.  Bourbon is nice, but not when you are betting.  I made at least two serious mistakes, while I was in Jim’s company, which cost me well over $200.  The week was saved on Saturday.  I had hoped that the Horse Racing Tipsters would come to my rescue with a huge weekend. Naturally they didn’t, but I managed to play some bonuses and make a nice profit …. while sober.

Overall this week I made a profit of $839 (+5.63% POT), which is nice but also galling at the same time.  Without Jim’s influence, it would have been the third week in a row of $1,000+ profit.

David Evans ~ Pro Bet lost $96 (-18% POT) on his Thoroughbred selections.

Ed Kennett ~ Red Belly Sports lost $225 (-20% POT) on his Thoroughbred selections.

My bets made a profit of $1,132 (+10% POT) on chasing Bookies bonuses on the races.  I don’t know if it was coincidental, but after the weekend, William Hill appointed a new account manager for me, and he advised that he would be looking deeper into my account.

Daily Profit ~ Value Bets made a profit of $20 (+4% POT). Not a lot of action around for them at the moment, but that will pick up dramatically as soon as the footy (AFL & NRL) start.  But they consistently make money.  It is a brilliant service.

Daily Profit ~ Daily Trades made a profit of $1 (+0.1% POT). I have tightened up the criteria on this one, and am trying to stick only with the main stream sports.  Too much chance of getting banned, or limited, if I start betting on all sorts of strange and exotic sports.

And so we dive into another week … hopefully with more discipline and less influence from Jim 🙂

Tips, recommendations and commentary are for entertainment only. We provide no warranty about accuracy or completeness. You should make your own assessment before placing a bet.

6 ~ 12 February 2017


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super-bowl-51The week, of course, started with Superbowl 51 and the remarkable win by the New England Patriots, driven by Tom Brady.  My profit for the week was $1,028 (+13% POT).

Unfortunately that win justified some bad bets. I had over committed on the Super Bowl Bets, through Daily Trades. The mistaken confidence generated by that win, caused a slight loss of discipline. I over committed on some subsequent Daily Trades, which lost, and of course, shook my belief in my own abilities.  I recognised the loss of discipline and quickly re-established my discipline.  However, the loss of faith in the Daily Trades lingers, and that is my problem.  I need to trade without emotion. It is a process, relax and follow the process.

This week David Evans ~ Pro Bets won 50% of his bets and returned a profit of $142  (+10.5% POT). Some of this profit was generated through Bonus Bets gained, from the 2nd placings of some of his selections.

Red Belly Sports didn’t operate on Saturday, as Ed was moving to the Gold Coast. But Ed made a profit on Wednesday of $60  (+19% POT).

My Bets, chasing bonuses made a profit of $69  (+4% POT).

Value Bets – Daily Profit made a profit of $637  (+23% POT)

Daily Trades – Daily Profit made a profit of $103  (+23% POT)

Second week in a row, I have made a profit of $1,000 +.  Starting to believe.

Anyhow! See you next week 🙂

Tips, recommendations and commentary are for entertainment only. We provide no warranty about accuracy or completeness. You should make your own assessment before placing a bet.

1 ~5 February 2017


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profit-bar-graph-with-upward-arrow-960x645I started 2017, writing a Daily Blog.  I need to be looking at my results on a monthly basis, rather than a Daily basis. I will do a weekly’ish blog for February, but from March onwards it will be a Monthly Blog.  The low light of this week was the Green/Mundine fight. Hopeless fight, no real result and proved nothing. Glad I didn’t pay to watch it.

I have started trialing Daily Trades, which will be released officially by Daily Profit shortly, I believe.  The results and my understanding started off slowly and not very convincingly.  Since re-adjusting the settings, the results are astonishing. I just hope they keep going.  In 2009 I wanted to be making $1,000 per week.  I doubt that I could have done in then, as all the tools that I needed were not available.  But it seems that they are now becoming available for the average punter.

From the 1st of February to the 5th of February,  I have made $1,387 profit (+20.56% POT), plus I have a couple of Bonus Bets, still to convert. For the first time I can see the $1,000 per week target as a reality, without requiring a bank of $100,000.

Daily Trade made $634 Profit (+46% POT).  This figure should have been increased by $95.50, as I put a winning Trade on incorrectly. I have accounted for the $50 loss in My Bets.

David Evans ~ Pro Bet returned a profit of $102  (+21% POT) from 22 Bets for 13 winners (S/R 59%).

Red Belly Sports returned a profit of $398  (+43% POT). As Ed backs a number of horses per race, the Strike Rate is not relevant.  The Profit On Turnover is the figure Ed is looking for.

My Bets returned a profit of $52  (+3% POT), even after accounting for the $50 error.  My Bets are generally about me learning to trade the races.  I am not wonderful at it, but I may be getting better 🙂

Daily Profit ~ Value Bets returned a profit of $191  (+9% POT).

Daily Trades returned a profit of $634  (+46% POT), by trading on sports results. There were 46 Bets for 23 winners (50% S/R).  But the structuring of the bets, is the key.  The size of the bets is adjusted according to the perceived probability of the outcome. The larger the probability, the larger the bet.  So although we only won half the bets, they were the bigger bets and the smaller bets were the losing bets.

See you in a week 🙂

Tips, recommendations and commentary are for entertainment only. We provide no warranty about accuracy or completeness. You should make your own assessment before placing a bet.

January 2017 ~ The Month In Review


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man-in-suit-counting-australian-money-resize-mediumA profit of $2,600 (+5.83% POT). When I started this journey in 2009, the goal was to produce a second income of $1,000 per week.  January’s profit is about half of my goal, so I am happy that I may finally, after 6 years, be heading in the right direction. It has been 6 years of learning.

During January my bets totaled $44,567, from which I returned $1,866 profit and $734 in Cash bonuses. The cash bonuses came from the Bet 365 Big Bash Promotions, which have now ended. There were 752 bets, of which 333 (45%) were winning bets, 412 (55%) were losing bets and 7 bets were refunded.

Champion Bets ~ Tennis resulted in $2,200 wagered for a $16 loss (-0.7%). There were 37 bets for 20 winners (54% SR). The cost of the subscription is $129 for 3 months, and I can not see the value in continuing this subscription, and will now end it.

David Evans ~ Pro Bet wagered $1,445 on 77 Bets, of which 27 won (35% SR), for a loss of $349.31 (-24% POT). This is a service where I have jumped ship a few times previously. For 2017, I paid the annual subscription of $545, so I am committed for the full year, or until my $2,000 bank is exhausted, whichever comes first. Not a great start to the year. We will see how the year progresses. There was 17.5% used in the first month, leaving 82.5% of the bank for the next 11 months.

Red Belly Sports ~ Ed Kennett had 140 bets for 22 winners (16% SR). There was $2,112 bet for a profit of $561.25 (26% POT). All of this was won on the last Saturday of the month, plus about $100 extra to cover previous losses.  Some of my recorded losses resulted from my inability to achieve the same prices as Ed. This service will be my main betting arm for Thoroughbred Racing in 2017.

There were 108 of my own bets for 63 winners (58% SR). The bets cost me a total of $11,561 and achieved a profit of $507 (4% POT). My bets consisted of backing and laying for bonuses.

Daily Profit ~ Value Bets bet $27,248 and won $1,163 (4% POT) from 384 bets, of which 201 (52% SR) were winners.

And so we move onto February, without Champion Bets. The journey continues!

Tips, recommendations and commentary are for entertainment only. We provide no warranty about accuracy or completeness. You should make your own assessment before placing a bet.

29 Jan 2017 – A Game For The Ages


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federer-v-nadalA very hot Sunday with not a lot of betting action. But with the Final of the Australian Open going 5 sets, there were lots of Bonus Bets to collect.  Overall I recorded a loss for the day of $63 (-7% POT).

David Evans ~ Pro Bet had a running double which lost $20 (-100% POT).

Champion Bets ~ Tennis lost $78 (-100% POT) by incorrectly picking Nadal to win the match.

Daily Profit ~ Value Bets won $35 (+4% POT) by claiming a money back special for Nadal losing in 5 sets, and also claimed $155 in Bonus Bets.


Tips, recommendations and commentary are for entertainment only. We provide no warranty about accuracy or completeness. You should make your own assessment before placing a bet.

28 Jan 2017 ~ Money! Money! Money!


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abba-moneySaturday was a busy day. I doubled the bank on Ed Kennett – Red Belly, in view of the cost and time spent on the service. I bet $2,365 on Saturday and made a profit of $745 (+31.50% POT). I know there will be losing days coming, but it is nice to have a big day.

David Evans – Pro Bet had two bets and lost them both, for a loss of $159 (-97% POT). There was a $50 Bonus Bet and a $5 refund, so the day’s result will be improved by around $35 when the Bonus Bet is converted to cash.

Ed Kennett – Red Belly Sports, after a slow start to January 2017, finished with a bang! A profit of +$668 (+104% POT).

My bets lost $38.58 (-9% POT) chasing bonuses. I got a $50 Bonus Bet, which will convert to around $35 cash, and result in a minor loss for the day.

Daily Profit ~ Value Bets showed a profit of $75 (+6.6% POT), and received a $200 Cash Bonus from the Big Bash promotion, and a $25 Bonus Bet.

Tips, recommendations and commentary are for entertainment only. We provide no warranty about accuracy or completeness. You should make your own assessment before placing a bet.

27 Jan 2017 – Leisurely Lunch


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20101118-scandistreetfood-bulldogNot much action, so it gave me an opportunity to have a leisurely lunch for about 3 hours, with my youngest daughter and an old friend of mine.  Was a great day. Daily Profit ~ Value Bets won $21 (+3.6 % POT), and collected $35 in Bonus Bets.

Expect a big day tomorrow.

Tips, recommendations and commentary are for entertainment only. We provide no warranty about accuracy or completeness. You should make your own assessment before placing a bet.