The Week In Review – 7 to 13 September 2015.
Before the review, I would like to revisit how all of this works. As we have new members joining us, I want to make sure that we are all on the same page.
Firstly gambling is simple maths. There is no secret, there is no inside knowledge, there is no magic formula and there is no magic computer program, expect possibly the Legendary and Late Alan Woods. But again his computer programs are only designed to rate the perceived possibility of an event happening. https://www.themonthly.com.au/monthly-essays-tony-wilson-mr-huge-alan-woods-and-his-amazing-computer-nags-riches-story-149
There is no secret. Each competitor is rated, and from those ratings the perceived probability of an event happening is calculated. If one coin is tossed into the air, the perceived probability of it landing Heads is 50%. From the perceived probability the implied odds are calculated, in this case they are 2/1. Next the implied odds (2/1) are compared against the available or expected odds. If the odds on a Head coming up were offered as 5/2 (2.5 / 1), then we have an edge on the market of 0.5 of a point. Our stake for that particular bet is then calculated. There are any number of ways of calculating stakes. My calculation involves the perceived possibility. The greater the possibility of an event occurring, the greater the stake. All of this you can do yourself. You need to get, or calculate, a set of ratings. Decent ratings cost a reasonable amount of money. Doing them yourself requires some sophisticated computer software, which is also expensive, and a huge investment in time. Personally I purchase ratings and make my calculations based on those. There is no inside knowledge, no God given gift, just pure mathematics.
Having bet on the coin toss, what is the outcome? After all that it came up Tails. But I know that given enough coin tosses about 50% of them will be Heads and if I am betting on them with a 0.5 edge, that will give me a profit.
We started using the new set of Ratings on 31 August 2015 and they have produced 51 selections, for 22 winners. A Strike Rate of 43%. Breaking this down between Thoroughbreds and Harness Races, we get:
Thoroughbreds 34 selections for 9 winners (25% S/R)
Harness 17 selections for 13 winners (76% S/R)
Looking deeper into these figures we have had 11 Thoroughbred selections run 2nd. From the 34 Thoroughbred selections 20 of them, or 32%, have run either 1st or 2nd. So we are in the right area with our selections. It seems that we could use some luck.
This week we had 31 selections for 14 winners (45% S/R). We outlaid 46.50 Units and returned 46.43 units for a loss of .07 of a unit.
The above analysis indicates that, I need to ensure that we are backing value in the thoroughbred market and that the returns from the harness are not commensurate with the investment. A Unit is whatever you wish to make it. Generally 1% or 2% of your bank. With the harness races continuing to show a high 70’s S/R, I will double the suggested units on the harness racing, for next week. Backing the harness races at the suggested stakes has returned a 10% POT (110% ROI). If the money being returned from harness is to provide an additional income, then the Turnover figure is the relevant figure in this equation. If you had turned over $1,000, you would have made $100 profit. In other words, you have to have money to make money. If you had turned over $100,000, you would have made $10,000 this week on the harness races. Your bank is critical to your success in this business, and you must make every effort to preserve and grow your bank.
I convert these to cash. I have a number at the moment, and I am betting on Sunderland v Tottenham Hotspur , in the EPL, having a 1-1 Draw. Using the Risk Free Calculator (http://bookiescash.com/tools/risk-freebet-calculator.html ) I will convert 78.45% of those Bonus Bets into Cash, which I then bank. Remember we are buying these Bonus bets for a couple of dollars, and we will buy more during the year.
Good Luck for next week
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Please gamble responsibly and never bet more than you can afford to lose.